Summary
Highlights
- Rising consumer confidence bodes well for the upcoming holiday season.
- Trump’s announced policies are boosting market sentiment, but they may add inflationary pressures later on.
- Uncertainty on the inflation path will make the Fed increasingly data-dependent.
In this edition
In November, US consumer confidence hit its highest point in over a year. Notably, expectations for the next six months (as shown in the chart) are at their highest level in nearly three years, which is promising for the upcoming holiday season. The increase in political discussions among survey participants indicates that the political climate following Donald Trump’s election may have influenced consumer attitudes. Additionally, a more positive view of job availability and equity markets at new record highs have further fuelled this optimism. With expected resilience in consumption, the key theme to monitor in the coming months will be inflation, as the new administration's economic policies could potentially heighten inflationary pressures. In this context, investors should explore potential opportunities across different markets and regions.
Key dates
China Caixin 4 Dec 6 Dec manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing
US ISM Services, Fed Chair Powell speech
US: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unempl. rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment
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