Summary
Protectionism, sanctions, tariffs, export controls and trade wars will intensify. Investors must assess these evolving risks.
Geopolitical outlook for the second half of 2024
Our analysis suggests that geopolitical risk is likely to rise for the remainder of this decade. Protectionism, sanctions, tariffs, export controls and trade wars will only intensify. History tells us that the more economic friction, the higher the risk of military conflict. The next few months will be crucial in determining the direction of various geopolitical hotspots.
Implications on commodities
The dynamics of commodities and geopolitical tensions are interconnected.
Crude oil is a key stress marker in the Middle East. Base metals are tied to the energy transition and implicitly to the US-China tech war, amid mining tightness and supply concentration.
Metals are a crucial stake in Africa too, where the West is competing with China for influence.
Natural gas and wheat are being weaponised in the Ukraine war, while access to Russian resources is being dramatically reshaped.
Focus on oil
OPEC+ announces its QT but will stay data dependent. The cartel announced an extension of the group-wide 1.5mbd production cuts until the end of 2025 but plans to wind down its 2.2mbd voluntary cuts from October 2024 over 12 months, if allowed by market conditions.
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